Tropical Cyclone Eloise was the strongest tropical cyclone to impact the country of Mozambique since Cyclone Kenneth in 2019 and the second of three consecutive tropical cyclones to impact Mozambique in the 2020-21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season. The different colors represent different average coefficients, ranging from 0 (light purple) to 0.24 (dark purple). Hurricane Florence reached its maximum wind speed of 130 knots (category 4 hurricane) on 11 September and made landfall on 14 September in North Carolina. 2008), and for a cross-section of 153 countries (Toya & Skidmore 2007). Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. Upon examining the underlying estimates in Tables 1213 in Appendix A.5, it is evident that the transport, storage, communication sectoral aggregate also turns negative, at least at the 90% confidence interval.Footnote 23. To analyze the effect of tropical cyclones in the longer run, I introduced lags of the tropical cyclone damage variable to the main specification 4. First, I add to the research area on the macroeconomic effects of disasters. In coastal areas, storm surges can lead to flooding, the destruction of infrastructures and buildings, the erosion of shorelines, and the salinization of the vegetation (Terry 2007; Le Cozannet etal. Anatomy of monster storm: how Cyclone Ilsa is shaping up to devastate 2010). Hurricane Florence Case Study - Internet Geography 4 displays the average InputOutput coefficients for all countries for all available years (19902015). Concurrently, the construction sector demands significantly more input (1.84%) from the agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing sector. Slider with three articles shown per slide. Econ J 129(619):13271342, He S (2017) Randomization inference with Stata: a guide and software. Effects of tropical cyclone damage on sectoral GDP growth compared to sample average. Panel (a) displays the percentage of agricultural land, whereas (b) shows the distribution of population in Australia in 2008. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Given that producers in modern economies are . Unraveling the Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Economic Sectors Worldwide: Direct and Indirect Impacts, $$\begin{aligned} S_{g} = {\left\{ \begin{array}{ll} \max (0, ((M - abs(T)) * \frac{R}{D}^\frac{3}{2} *e^{1-\frac{R}{D}^\frac{3}{2}})+T),&{} \text {if }D<10*R \text { from center to outer core} \\ 0, &{} \text {if }D>10*R \text { out of radius}. Additionally, the lagged dependent variable controls for a sluggish adjustment to shocks of the individual sector input composition. Am Econ J Appl Econ 8(2):123153, Guha-Sapir D, CRED (2020) EM-DAT: the emergency events database. The underlying calculations for these numbers are as follows: agricultural damage: 91/1027 = 0.0886, population damage: 82/1035 = 0.0801. To allow for the possibility of multiple tropical cyclones per year and country, I conduct two robustness tests. Admittedly, this will not fully solve potential endogeneity problems, and concerns about bad controls (Angrist & Pischke 2009) and over-controlling (Dell etal. How did the tropical cyclone Eloise impact the economy and people. J Urban Econ 88:5066, Elliott RJ, Liu Y, Strobl E, Tong M (2019) Estimating the direct and indirect impact of typhoons on plant performance: evidence from Chinese manufacturers. As tropical cyclones are exogenous to sectoral economic growth, the greatest threat to causal identification could arise by omitting important climatic variables that are correlated with tropical cyclones (Auffhammer etal. The winds are driven by this low-pressure core and by the rotation of Earth, which deflects the path of the wind through a phenomenon known as the Coriolis force. Tropical Cyclone Eloise, which hit southeastern Africa in January 2021, caused widespread flooding and landslides, resulting in at least 21 deaths and. PubMedGoogle Scholar. For the dynamic analysis, the panel length is 65years, and for the InputOutput regression, it comprises 20years. Direct negative impacts can result from the destruction of productive capital, infrastructure, or buildings, and thereby can generate a negative income shock for the whole economy (Kousky 2014). Stagnant water can cause the spread of disease, and transportation or communication infrastructure may have been destroyed, hampering clean-up and rescue efforts. Climate change impacted Hurricane Florence's precipitation and size For the latitude and longitude the model takes a spline interpolation, whereas for intensity and time observations it uses a linear interpolation. Evidence from India. Sectoral GDP is defined as gross value added per sector aggregate and is collected for different economic activities following the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) revision number 3.1. In subsequent years, tropical cyclones negatively affect the majority of all sectors. Barrot J-N, Sauvagnat J (2016) Input specificity and the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks in production networks. One major effort of this paper is to generate a new meaningful sectoral damage variable on a country-year level. However, the presented results are generalized for 205 countries at most, and every specific country should make an analysis of their specific vulnerability and individual exposure. Eastern North Carolina is prone to flooding associated with tropical cyclones (e.g., hurricanes Fran in 1996 and Matthew in 2016) and it is likely that an event similar to the Hurricane Florence . Part of Springer Nature. Together with further control variables, Table 2 in Appendix A.4 lists the exact definition of all variables used. Figure 6 demonstrates that three out of seven sectoral aggregates suffer from delayed negative impacts of tropical cyclones. In Sect. 4 and 6 with the population weighted damage for the agricultural sectoral aggregate. 912, while Tables 511 show the regression results. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml, Nickell SJ (1981) Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. This does not mean that there have to exist a permanent negative growth effect for every period after the disaster. How do tropical storms affect people and the environment? 2013). Google Scholar, Auffhammer M, Hsiang SM, Schlenker W, Sobel A (2013) Using weather data and climate model output in economic analyses of climate change. The recovery to trend hypothesis characterizes a pattern where after a negative effect in the short run, the economy recovers to the previous growth path after some time. Therefore, I propose a new damage measure that explicitly considers these different exposures. When water changes from a liquid to a gas, it absorbs heat, and when it changes from a gas to a liquid, it releases heat. First, I only use the damage fraction due to maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones. Thus, tropical cyclones are and will continue to be a serious threat to the life and assets of a large number of people worldwide. Additionally, I allow for country-specific linear trends \(\mu _i*t\). Notes This figure shows the effect of a one standard deviation increase in tropical cyclone damage on the per capita sectoral GDP growth rate compared to the respective sample average. Environ Res Lett 13(7):074034. Figure 6 illustrates the cumulative point estimates of the past influence of tropical cyclone damage on the different sectoral growth variables.Footnote 22 The x-axis represents the lags of the damage variable, while the y-axis indicates the size of the cumulative coefficient \(\beta\) (in standard deviations). 25111299), Oosterhaven J (2017) On the limited usability of the inoperability IO model. 2018) or exposed area (Hsiang and Jina 2014) to weight the respective physical intensities of tropical cyclones. Section4 presents the main results as well as robustness checks. J Dev Econ 111:92106, Fetzer T (2020) Can workfare programs moderate conflict? eSwatini also experienced rainfall.. The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors, Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, A framework for assessing the economic impacts of Arctic change, https://github.com/davidnbresch/climada/blob/master/docs/climada_manual.pdf, https://www.munichre.com/en/solutions/for-industry-clients/natcatservice.html, https://ideas.repec.org/c/boc/bocode/s352601.html, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml, https://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/Metadata/Glossary#, https://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/assets/pdf/methodology.pdf, http://data.un.org/Explorer.aspx?d=SNAAMA, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Quick Answer: How Did Hurricane Florence Impact Public Health 4. http://data.un.org/Explorer.aspx?d=SNAAMA, University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, Harris IC, Jones PD (2017) CRU TS4.01: climatic research unit (CRU) time-series (TS) version 4.01 of high-resolution gridded data of month-by-month variation in climate (Jan. 1901Dec. Cyclone Cheneso. Freddy has finally been declared over by the French Meteorological service. Econometrica 55(3):703708, Newson R (1998) PARMEST: Stata module to create new data set with one observation per parameter of most recent model. During 5 February, a tropical low was located south of Bali, Indonesia. Further details on the data on tropical cyclones can be found in Appendix A.1. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-021-00541-5, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-021-00541-5. However, time-delayed effects must also be taken into account since some damage, such as supply-chain interruptions or demand-sided impacts, will only be visible after a certain time lag (Kousky 2014; Botzen etal. Additionally, within the agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing sectors, only the fishing sector experiences indirect negative effects. Consequently, for each grid point g, a wind speed S is calculated depending on the maximum sustained wind speed (M), the forward speed (T), the distance (D) from the storm center, and the radius of the maximum wind (R)Footnote 8: As a result, I generate hourly wind fields for each of the 7814 tropical cyclones in my sample period (19702015).Footnote 9 Figure 1 illustrates the resulting modeled wind fields for Hurricane Ike in 2008 on its way to the U.S. coast. Hurricane Florence: The science behind the storm This suggests that the production chains of the economy are only slightly disrupted by tropical storms, and indirect impacts are thus negligible. I follow Emanuel (2011) by including the cube of wind speed above a cut-off wind speed of 92 km/h. As per the guidelines of the World . Ecol Econ 107:333346, Le Cozannet G, Modaressi H, Pedreros R, Garcin M, Krien Y, Desramaut N (2013) Storm surges. Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. The main specification is estimated for each of the \(j(={1,,7})\) sector aggregates separately. For the Placebo test I have to forward the damage variable by two periods, since the damage in t index consists of the affected agricultural land/exposed population in \({t-1}\). How Tropical Cyclone Eloise Impacted the Environment Hsiang (2010) also finds the largest negative effects of tropical cyclones for the agricultural sector aggregate, while Loayza etal. NHESS - Economic damage and spillovers from a tropical cyclone Cyclone Nivar : A cyclone is a general term for a weather system in which winds rotate inwardly to an area of low atmospheric pressure. To quantify the destructiveness of tropical cyclones, I construct a new damage measure based on meteorological data weighted by different exposure of the sectors. World Dev 21(9):14171434, Angrist JD, Pischke J-S (2009) Mostly harmless econometrics: an empiricists companion. In addition, in a recent working paper, Hsiang and Jina (2014) even demonstrate a long-term negative impact of tropical cyclones of up to 20 years. How did the Tropical Cyclone Florence impact the people communities? The damaging winds are responsible for serious destruction of buildings and vegetation. On Sunday it moved on from Zimbabwe to dump heavy rain on some areas of South Africa's Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal provinces, authorities there said. These factors are a decrease in the forward speed of a storm, increased intensity, and more water vapor in the atmosphere. From 1980 to 2018 tropical cyclones were responsible for nearly half of all natural disaster losses worldwide, with damage amounting to an aggregate of USD 2111 billion (Munich Re 2018). In comparison, in my analysis, I take meteorological data as input which is exogenous to the political and economic situation, contains all existing tropical cyclones, and has no quality fluctuations. 0.1\(^{\circ }\) corresponds to approximately 10km at the equator. During 6 February, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) reported that the tropical low had developed into a Category 1-cyclone on the Australian scale . Once it makes landfill, Florence is expected to lash coastal communities with 130-mph winds and to dump several feet of water. This approach follows Hsiang and Jina (2014) which analyze the accumulated long-term GDP growth effects of tropical cyclones worldwide. Figure 8 also offers an explanation for the downturn of the mining and utilities (C&E) sector aggregate after some years, as shown in Fig. (2019) show that indirect impacts are nearly as high as direct impacts. PLoS ONE 14(4):121, Strobl E (2011) The economic growth impact of hurricanes: Evidence from U.S. coastal counties. Princeton University Press, Princeton, Book For example, Loayza etal. The most interesting changes can be observed within the single sectors of the manufacturing (D) aggregate. Color intensities indicate p values according to: \(p<0.01\), \(p<0.05\), \(p<0.1\). Their destructiveness has three sources: damaging winds, storm surges, and heavy rainfalls. The remainder of this paper is structured as follows: Sect. It remains unclear if there exists some key sector, which, if damaged, results in a negative shock for the other sectors. This allows me to analyze whether any key sectors exist that, if damaged, result in direct damage of other sectors. The meteorological history of Hurricane Florence spanned 22 days from its inception on August 28, 2018, to its dissipation on September 18. Observations were excluded if they were above the \((2k+2)/n\) threshold for leverage and above the 2/sqrt(n) threshold for dfbeta. Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative, Over 10 million scientific documents at your fingertips, Not logged in The start of the arrow shows the input, and the end denotes the respective output. In order to design effective mitigation and adaptation disaster policies to this threat, it is important to understand the economic impact of natural disasters. The seventh tropical depression, fifth named storm and the second .
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